NWS Provides Winter Outlook
The National Weather Service released a winter outlook on Thursday, Oct. 16.
Key messages show that La Nina conditions are ongoing and are favored to persist through February of 2026, with a transition to ENSO-Neutral likely late in the cold season.
There is a high probability (77% chance) that this is a weak and short-lived La Nina event. During weak events, odds are lower that the traditional La Nina pattern will dominate the winter.
La Nina events typically favor colder and slightly wetter conditions during the winter across North Dakota. Ahead of La Nina winters, the fall season tends to be mild and dry, with an abrupt transition to winter-like temperatures in the late fall. As always, other climate features can cancel out the expected pattern.
Due to the expected La Nina conditions, this winter is favored to have below normal temperatures (40 to 45% chance). This does not mean there won’t be any mild periods in the winter, or that winter won’t end up warmer than normal overall (25% chance). There is also a tilt towards above average precipitation (~40%). Combined with colder than normal temperatures, this would favor precipitation events that are all snow, compared to some recent years where we have seen more mixed precipitation events.
The signal for below normal temperatures continues through the winter and spring (February, March and April). Long term trends suggest spring is cooling across North Dakota, which gives additional confidence that this period is favored for colder than normal temperatures, since the long term trend and the expected La Nina signal result in the same outcome. The enhanced precipitation signal starts to weaken by this period.
The winter outlook expects near normal temperatures through the rest of the fall. The transition to winter-like temperatures should be sometime from late November to December. Normal to below temperatures are expected from January through April, potentially lasting into May.
Precipitation outlooks show the first measurable snow is not likely until November, especially across southern North Dakota. There are signs of an active winter overall, with historical trends favoring a more active back half of winter. Trends also show we often get a December storm in this pattern. Based on previous winter seasons and the forecast pattern, expect above normal seasonal snowfall.